A comprehensive guide to climate projections and property environmental assessments
Climate projections estimate how environmental conditions such as rainfall, temperature, and soil moisture may change over time. These changes can influence flooding, ground movement, heat, drought, wildfire conditions, and coastal processes.
Climate risk assessments summarise projected changes that may affect the surrounding environment and how those conditions could influence property exposure over the coming decades.
Climate conditions influence the natural environment in different ways. To understand potential impacts on a property, several elements are considered together.
A hazard is a projected environmental condition such as heavier rainfall, hotter summers, or prolonged dry periods.
Some locations are naturally more sensitive to certain hazards. For example, clay soils may respond to changes in soil moisture, while low-lying areas may be more sensitive to surface water flooding.
Buildings vary in how they respond to environmental stress. Construction materials, foundations, drainage, insulation, and shading can all influence how a property responds to environmental conditions.
Risk occurs where projected hazards interact with local susceptibility and property characteristics.
Climate risk assessments interpret projected environmental hazards and local risk susceptibility, indicating how they may change over time under different climate scenarios.
Climate projections use computer models to estimate how environmental conditions may evolve under different global emissions pathways. These pathways are known as Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs).
Two commonly used scenarios are referenced in climate risk assessments.
This scenario assumes global emissions stabilise during the middle of the century and gradually decline thereafter. It is broadly consistent with international climate policy targets and represents a future where moderate climate action is taken globally.
This scenario assumes continued higher emissions and is often used to understand potential upper-range climate outcomes. It helps identify potential vulnerabilities that may emerge if global emissions continue unchecked.
Different hazards may reference different scenarios because some environmental processes respond more strongly to higher emissions. For example, heat and drought projections are often assessed using higher emissions scenarios to understand potential upper limits.
These scenarios represent possible future conditions rather than precise forecasts.
Climate projections typically extend to around 2050 or 2070. These timeframes are commonly used in environmental and infrastructure planning because they capture changes that may occur within the expected lifespan of many buildings and within long-term property ownership periods.
Environmental conditions generally change gradually over time. Projections therefore describe trends rather than exact future events.
Climate risk assessments review a range of environmental hazards that may be influenced by climate change. Each hazard is assessed using environmental data and climate projections to estimate how conditions may evolve.
Flood risk can be influenced by changes in rainfall intensity and storm patterns. Climate projections indicate that short-duration heavy rainfall events may become more intense in many parts of the UK.
These changes can influence:
Flooding projections consider how rainfall patterns may change over time and how those changes could influence flood-related hazards.
Some soils, particularly clay-rich soils, expand when wet and contract when dry. This process is known as shrink–swell.
Projected changes in seasonal rainfall and soil moisture can increase the frequency of soil drying and re-wetting cycles. Over time, this may influence the likelihood of ground movement in areas with susceptible soils.
Shrink–swell projections consider:
Drought occurs when prolonged periods of below-average rainfall lead to reduced soil moisture and water availability.
Climate projections suggest that parts of the UK may experience:
Drought projections are used to understand potential changes in soil moisture, vegetation stress, and groundwater conditions.
Climate projections indicate that average temperatures are expected to increase over time. As a result, very warm days may occur more frequently.
Heat stress assessments consider:
These projections help identify how temperature patterns may evolve under different climate scenarios.
Wildfire risk can increase during extended periods of hot and dry weather, particularly in areas with combustible vegetation such as moorland, heathland, or woodland.
Climate projections may influence wildfire conditions through:
Wildfire assessments consider proximity to vegetation types that may be more susceptible to fire under dry conditions.
Coastal erosion occurs when wave action and sea-level changes gradually remove land along the coastline.
Climate change may influence coastal processes through:
Coastal erosion projections rely on coastal modelling and shoreline management planning datasets to understand potential long-term changes in shoreline position.
Climate projections and environmental datasets used in climate risk assessments may include:
Climate projections are derived from complex models that simulate atmospheric and environmental processes. Results are typically expressed as ranges or probabilities rather than exact outcomes.
Actual future conditions will depend on global emissions pathways, regional climate variability, and local environmental factors.
Climate projections provide an indication of how environmental conditions may change over time. They are used to identify potential future trends rather than predict specific events.
Environmental conditions at an individual property can also be influenced by factors such as local infrastructure, drainage systems, land management practices, and building characteristics.